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目的 对北京市市售生鸡肉从销售到餐桌阶段非伤寒沙门菌(non-typhoidal Salmonella,NTS)的风险水平开展初步定量风险评估。方法 鸡肉中的非伤寒沙门菌污染水平来自于2022年北京市微生物及致病因子监测，基于ComBase数据库拟合非伤寒沙门菌生长模型，参考文献资料建立暴露评估模型，应用@Risk 7.5软件进行模拟分析，结合剂量-反应关系，估算居民患非伤寒沙门菌病的风险。结果 北京市居民每餐因食用鸡肉及厨房交叉污染罹患沙门菌病的风险为6.21例/10万，平均年发病51 955.42例。敏感性分析表明，居民购买鸡肉中非伤寒沙门菌的初始污染水平、居民平均每餐即食食品摄入量与冷藏储存温度等参数为正相关，与烹饪中非伤寒沙门菌暴露温度与暴露时间为负相关。结论 降低鸡肉中非伤寒沙门菌的初始污染浓度、合理设定冰箱冷藏室温度，减少厨房交叉污染等措施可以有效降低非伤寒沙门菌病患病风险。
Abstract：OBJECTIVE A quantitative microbiological risk assessment was conducted for non-typhoidal Salmonella(NTS)in raw chicken from retail stores to consumers in Beijing.METHODS The monitoring of microorganisms and pathogenic factors data was used to estimate the initial contamination level of NTS in the retail raw chicken. The growth model of NTS were referenced from the ComBase data base. Exposure assessment model was reference from scientific literature. Using the @ Risk 7.5 software for simulation analysis, combined with the dose-response relationship, estimate the risk of residents developing NTS disease.RESULTS The risk of Salmonella infection per meal among Beijing residents due to consuming chicken and kitchen cross contamination was 6.21 cases per 100 000, with an average annual incidence of 51 955.42 cases. Sensitivity analysis shows that the initial contamination level of NTS in chicken purchased by residents, the average intake of ready to eat food per meal by residents, and refrigeration storage temperature are positively correlated, while they are negatively correlated with NTS exposure temperature and exposure time during cooking.CONCLUSION Measures such as reducing the initial concentration of NTS in chicken, setting a reasonable refrigerator temperature, and reduce the occurrence of kitchen cross contamination can effectively reduce the risk of NTS disease.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19813/j.cnki.weishengyanjiu.2025.05.021
中图分类号:R155.5
引用信息:
[1]吴阳博,崔霞,刘玉竹,等.2022年北京市市售生鸡肉中非伤寒沙门菌初步定量风险评估[J].卫生研究,2025,54(05):848-854.DOI:10.19813/j.cnki.weishengyanjiu.2025.05.021.
2024-12-16
2024
2025-02-26
2025
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2025-09-19
2025-09-19