卫生研究

目的预测2022—2030年中国城镇和农村居民主要食物摄入量的变化趋势。方法数据来源于2000—2018年的中国健康与营养调查,调查采用分层多阶段整群随机抽样,采用连续3天24小时膳食回顾法完成膳食调查。7轮调查20岁及以上人群样本量分别为9794、9425、9313、9726、12 760、15 446和15 051人。以7轮食物平均摄入量数据为基础,应用灰色模型对2022—2030年中国城镇和农村居民主要食物摄入量进行预测。结果 (1)城镇和农村各类食物摄入量预测的平均绝对百分比误差范围为1.6%～38.4%。(2)从2022—2030年各类食物摄入量趋势看,中国居民植物性食物中谷薯和蔬菜的平均摄入量呈下降趋势,水果的平均摄入量呈上升趋势;城镇居民禽类和水产品,农村居民畜类、禽类和蛋类等动物性食物的平均摄入量呈上升趋势;城镇居民畜类和蛋类、农村居民水产品等动物性食物的平均摄入量呈下降趋势。(3)与2018年摄入量相比,预测到2030年,城镇居民水果、禽类和水产品平均摄入量将分别增加60.7%、29.4%和6.6%,谷薯、蔬菜、畜类、蛋类摄入量将分别减少36.9%、19.4%、8.7%和12.4%。2030年农村居民水果、畜类、禽类、蛋类摄入量将分别增加88.9%、31.8%、71.9%和9.2%,谷薯、蔬菜、水产品摄入量将分别减少32.5%、24.8%和2.2%。(4)预测到2030年城镇居民和农村居民的禽类平均摄入量在《中国居民膳食指南2016》的推荐量范围之内;城镇居民和农村居民的谷薯、蔬菜、水果、蛋类和水产品的平均摄入量将低于膳食指南推荐量,而城镇居民和农村居民的畜类平均摄入量将远高于膳食指南推荐量。结论不同类别食物应用同一预测模型,预测精度不同。根据模型预测结果,2030年中国城镇居民和农村居民的禽类平均摄入量将达到膳食指南要求,谷薯、蔬菜、水果、蛋类和水产品等食物的平均摄入量仍低于膳食指南推荐量,而畜类的平均摄入量将远高于膳食指南推荐量。

OBJECTIVE To predict the main food intake trend of the China's urban and rural residents from 2022 to 2030. METHODS Data was collected from the China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS),which was carried out on a stratified, multistage, clustered, and random sampling method.And the average daily food intake in the survey was continuously collected by a 24-hour dietary review method for 3 consecutive days. The sample sizes aged 20 years or older of seven rounds survey were 9794, 9425, 9313, 9726, 12 760, 15 446 and 15 051, respectively. Based on the seven rounds of average food intake, the main food intake of urban and rural residents in China from 2022 to 2030 was predicted by the Grey model. RESULTS(1)The mean absolute percentage error of average food intake prediction in urban and rural ranged from 1.6% to 38.4%.(2)In terms of the trends of food intake from 2022 to 2030, the grain and vegetable average intake of plant food in urban and rural residents showed a decreasing trend, while the average intake of fruits showed an increasing trend. The average intake of animal food, such as poultry and aquatic products in urban, livestock, poultry, eggs in rural areas showed an upward trend. Meanwhile, the average intake of animal food, such as livestock and eggs in urban and aquatic products in rural showed a downward trend.(3)Compared with the 2018,the fruits, poultry and aquatic product intake of urban and rural residents in 2030 will increase by 60.7%,29.4% and 6.6%,the intake of grain, vegetables, livestock and eggs in urban areas will decrease by 36.9%, 19.4%, 8.7% and 12.4%, respectively.In 2030, the intake of fruits, livestock, poultry and eggs of rural residents will increase by 88.9%,31.8%, 71.9% and 9.2%, respectively. While the intake of grain, vegetables and aquatic products of rural residents will decrease by 32.5%, 24.8% and 2.2%, respectively.(4)By 2030,the average intake of poultry in urban and rural areas will be within the recommended range of dietary guidelines.But the average intake of grain, vegetables, fruits, eggs and aquatic products in urban and rural areas will remain below dietary recommendations.While the livestock average intake will be far higher than the recommendations. CONCLUSION The model accuracy is different when applied to different kinds of food.According to the prediction result of the grey model, residents should be guided to maintain the current grain intake level and increase the intake of vegetables, fruits, poultry, eggs and aquatic products in order to get balanced diet, while reducing the intake of livestock.